Who Needs Firefox Anyway?

It did not take much to turn the world against Firefox. Just one Internet analysis firm that has, admittedly, the most comprehensive, publicly available data set on browser market shares available, released data, which indicates that Firefox has been surpassed by Chrome in popularity. It was enough to serve as a foundation for an Internet broadside against the browser that, not too along, carried the mind share of innovation in Internet software. Suddenly we are asking questions and wconder if Firefox can “survive” or if it is “toast”. The second salvo came today when reports questioning the state of negotiations of Mozilla’s royalties with Google surfaced. Does Google still need Mozilla? And if it does not, who needs Mozilla anyway? Do you?

You can be passionate about Firefox and support the browser and its developer as much as you want, the reality is that the downturn of Firefox is rather dramatic and we have reason to believe that the market share losses will continue at least until Q2 or Q3 of 2012, when Mozilla will have an opportunity for a turnaround, if it executes its current roadmap perfectly (read the details in our previous article). StatCounter data now suggests that Chrome is already distancing itself from Firefox. Chrome hit an average 28.39% share on Sunday, a new record, while Firefox was at just 25.63%. Current data suggests that Chrome will be exceeding 27% share this month, IE will be falling below 39% and Firefox could be suffering a marginal decline. Regionally, Chrome is the most popular browser in South America. It has surpassed Firefox in Asia. Last weekend, Chrome market share exceeded Firefox in North America for the first time. The last bastion for Firefox is Africa, largely due to its phenomenal localization efforts, but even here are Mozilla’s walls crumbling. So, is Firefox soon irrelevant? Who still cares for Firefox?

Google

Let’s understand Google’s goal first. Google is well on its way to catch up with IE and may surpass IE share by Q3 2012 in the neighborhood of 33-35%. There is no need for a crystal ball to predict that IE will lose its market leadership to Chrome: Microsoft has largely given up on IE8, which still commands about 22% market share, but only cares about Windows 7 and IE9 users. A good portion of IE8 will, by default end up with Google – and Google does not even have to try hard. The time when Chrome will exceed IE will largely depend on the traction Microsoft can gain with Windows 8. Google’s goal is overall market dominance in browsers. Every market share point counts, as a Chrome user is an almost certain Google search user and a valuable ad revenue source. Microsoft’s goal is browser leadership on Windows 7/8.

Whether Google still cares for Mozilla depends on how close Google is to its goal. As long as Google can take leverage Mozilla against IE and can as long as Firefox brings in a profit for advertising revenues, Firefox has purpose for Google. However, Firefox’ role is diminished the more share Chrome gains and it would be naïve of Mozilla to believe that it can keep the status quo. It will have to diversify its revenue base. Firefox still has 25% share, but it’s a tough spot to be in right now and Google is calling the shots. Interestingly Mozilla has become rather hostile against some of Google’s ideas in Chrome, which certainly does not help to improve its tools to negotiate a favorable deal. Declining market share directly hurts Mozilla’s bottom line in any way you look at it, and its dependency on Google is something Mozilla needs to fix: In 2010, 84% of its income came from Google. On a positive note, Google still needs Mozilla to push some of its product ideas such as SPDY or even WebGL, as the browsers now reach more than 50% of web users. There are some levers Mozilla can pull and Google still needs Mozilla very much. There are just different dynamics that are changing the rules of the game.

Microsoft

Mozillians do not really like Microsoft’s IE staff. Period. In the end, Microsoft virtually killed Firefox’ ancestor and certain aversion from Microsoft products has fueled Firefox since the early stages of its development. But as Chrome is now approaching IE in market share, we notice that Microsoft has turned its attention toward Chrome and there have been tender sprouts of collaboration between Mozilla and Microsoft, such as the integration of Bing into a special version of Firefox.

As Chrome grows stronger, the more valuable Mozilla will be for Microsoft and Microsoft may want to think about supporting Mozilla in its effort to make the corner and bring its market share back up. It may even be able to support its Bing revenues much better than it does right now. Microsoft can play the Mozilla card to support its own business and hurt Google at the same time. Right now, Mozilla might be very interested in hearing what Microsoft has to offer. Microsoft very much cares about Mozilla, of course. And, by the way, both Microsoft and Google need Mozilla as an antitrust buffer and neither will be taking a shot that deliberately kills Mozilla, even if both could easily live without Mozilla were it to disappear tomorrow.

You

As a part of the Internet community, do you care about Firefox? You should. Remember that Firefox is the reason why browsers are as advanced as they are today. Firefox was the reason why browsers got more nimble again in the mid-2000s, it is the reason why browsers have become as secure as they are today, and it surely has pushed the envelope of JavaScript performance in the second half of the last decade. Even today, Firefox remains the only major browser that is free from corporate interest and it is important for the Internet that Firefox remains a control instance for Google and Microsoft to remind them that they don’t get a free for all. An Internet that is dominated by two browsers is better than an Internet that is dominated by just one browser, but it is in the interest of all users that Mozilla has the leverage to influence trends, potentially block trends, call out foul play and move the scale to one side or the other. As an underdog, Mozilla may be able to influence opinion even more than it did in the past two years when it struggled to make its users happy.

Mozilla

Does Mozilla still care about Firefox? It’s a silly question – of course they do, but you have to admit that the Mozilla of 2011 has not much in common with the Mozilla of 2004 – the Mozilla so many people fell in love with. Firefox is in a decline because of a series of strategic mistakes and the might of its rivals, but a portion of the market share drop may also be due to its overconfident behavior this year. There were plenty of Mozilla people in the spotlight that were way to cocky and forgot the origins of Mozilla and why the average user likes Firefox. The current market share drop is a tough reminder just how breakable Firefox is and that Mozilla may not have listened to its users very well and focused way too much on its own problems and goals. Sure, Mozilla needs to learn to execute much more swiftly and effectively against Google, but it needs to keep its users in mind as well. 2011 has done a lot of damage to the user core. In 2012, Mozilla needs to begin caring for itself much more again – for its community.

Wolfgang Gruener in Business on December 05