January 2012 has been a remarkable month for the web browser as we
know it. Those who closely follow the popularity of web browsers already
know that Chrome has, according to StatCounter, surpassed Firefox in
market share in November 2011, thus rearranging the rules of the browser
game and turning it, for now, into a two-horse race. Now, Chrome is
beginning to approach IE in most regions around the globe and has
reduced its distance to IE, on one day, to less than four percentage
points. If the current trend, which has lasted for more than 3 years,
continues, then Google will surpass IE within 3 months.
We will get new browser market share numbers tonight, but since
StatCounter is nice enough to provide daily market share numbers, it is
not too difficult to figure what the result will be, less than 10 hours
before the official publication. There is a truly historic trend in
those numbers and their impact is largely unrecognized today. The
conclusion can only be that the browser has grown up from being an
application to a platform that will dominate more and more the way we
will be using products and services in the future. A vision in which an
Internet Explorer could, conceivably, replace much of Windows is not
science-fiction anymore, but could soon turn into a scenario of
necessity.
History
There are different ways how to break up the evolution of the
browser. I prefer the following approach: Invented in 1992, we saw
commercial organizations as well as a substantial number of consumers
see interest in the (Spyglass) browser, at the time merely an add-on to
online services such as Compuserve, in 1993. Beginning in 1995,
Microsoft showed his interest in developing IE and started pushing the
software into businesses with customization toolkits and an ability to
run IE3 with a simple executable – without the need of installation.
While Microsoft trailed Netscape in browser market share, the game
changed in 1997 with IE4, when Microsoft almost arrogantly deviated from
the HTML standard path and integrated IE4 deeply into Windows and
enabled the browser to run “dynamic” desktop applications. This
integration wiped out market share for Netscape, which was acquired (and
strangled) by AOL in 1998. Until 2004, innovation for the browser
largely stood still, but Microsoft was able to establish IE5 and 6 as
browser standards around the world. In 2004, Mozilla launched Firefox,
which was developed with some assets of Netscape, and reintroduced
competition for IE. Until 2008, Firefox gained about 20% market share
and became especially popular with consumers, which led me to describe
the browser frequently as a “weekend browser” with market share jumping
especially on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays.
Chrome launched in late 2008, stirred discussions, but failed to
attract market share until Q2 2009. In 2009, Chrome gained 4.5 points
market share, in 2010 8.8 points and in 2011 11.6 points, according to
StatCounter, while both IE and Firefox are suffering losses. Chrome’s
initial success was mostly based on its promise of greater speed and
later a reduced browsing interface, both features that were adopted by
IE and Firefox in 2010 and 2011. Combined with its advertising leverage,
Chrome has the momentum to keep gaining market share at a consistent
pace until it reaches market leadership.
The present
January has been, as mentioned above, a remarkable month for Chrome.
Its average market share will come in at about 28.4%, up from 27.3% in
December. Firefox will fall about half a point to below 24.8%, its
lowest level in 43 months, and IE will drop to about 37.5%, down from
38.7% in December. Over the past 12 months, IE lost 8.0 points market
share and Firefox 5.6 lost points. Chrome has gained 11.8 points, a new
record for Google. The difference of nearly 2 points went to Apple’s
Safari, which is now at about 6.5%.
However, the interesting part of those numbers is in the details.
Chrome for example, peaked last Sunday at 30.9%, according to
StatCounter, the first time it exceeded 30% market share. By the way,
one year ago, Firefox fell permanently below the 30% mark. IE dropped to
34.0% market share on Sunday. On a browser version level, Chrome 16
held more than 27.6% of the market, followed by IE8 with 18.5%, Firefox 9
with 15.8% and IE9 with 12.4%. If we consider the fact that Microsoft
would like to get rid of IE8 immediately, then Chrome now has more than
twice the (HTML5) market share than Microsoft does in the general HTML5
browser market. If we add the fact that Mozilla is closely following
Chrome in browser features (including SPDY and the rejection of
Microsoft’s H.264 video approach), Chrome and Firefox now own more than
43% of the HTML5 browser market with their most current browser
versions, which gives especially Google unprecedented power to push and
reject browser features for the mass market.
The immediate future
IE, Firefox and Chrome have been on very consistent curves of market
share decline and growth for more than 3 years. If that trend continues,
and there is no reason to believe that there will be substantial change
even with the launch of Windows 8 and IE10, Chrome will begin to
surpass IE market share on individual days within 60 to 75 days. By June
or July, Chrome will permanently surpass IE market share, if we remain
with StatCounter’s numbers. The meeting point of both curves will be at
about 34% market share. Given Microsoft’s historic dominance of this
market and the fact that there are now more Internet users who have no
idea that Netscape ever existed than those who do, it will be an
important sign for the web (if and) when Chrome passes IE in market
share and ends an era that has lasted for more than 14 years – an
eternity in tech.
So, what does that mean for the user?
Chrome’s gain is, of course, a result of a choice that is being made
by the average user. Google is building user loyalty – in part the
company is even forcing that loyalty by catering to our laziness to keep
our browser updated and is sending those updates to us, silently and,
let’s admit it, conveniently. That trend has some obvious implications,
for example that Google is following a strategy to make sure that we are
using Google Search as a search engine and not Bing, and secure
Google’s core revenue base. Consider Chrome a wall that is being built
around Google Search. However, there are more implications that are
likely going to change the nature of the web browser.
We have been preaching here that the browser is not just a piece of
software anymore. It’s the fabric that holds an entire platform
together. Conceivably, the browser is evolving and has matured to become
much more than a tool that enables the user to enter a URL and view the
data stored and visualized at that destination. For Google, Chrome is
just happening to visualize websites, but its JavaScript optimizations
were intended from the very start to enable rich web applications and
services to replace your local software. SPDY and revisions and
protocols of TCP are further examples how Google is slowly lifting the
browser’s capabilities to run what we may soon perceive as being an
alternative to Windows. Then there is Chrome OS, which will be
handicapped as long as there is no reliable and affordable always-on
wireless Internet connection everywhere, but the vision is certainly
there. Then there is Chrome for Android, which will play a much greater
role on large-screen devices such as Google TV than it does on
smartphones and tablets, which are primarily app-centric devices. For
Mozilla, the browser is taking a similar turn with Boot2Gecko, the
organization’s approach to provide a Firefox-like OS for phones and
tablets, as well as Mozilla’s idea to open up web applications for
Firefox. Microsoft is, similar to Windows 98, integrating a much more
web-centric approach to Windows 8, with an App Store that will be
heavily promoting HTML5 apps to run in IE10. IE is also turning into a
platform tool for Microsoft with the essential software and backend that
could tie phones, tablets, PCs and consumer electronics devices
together. For certain devices, IE could actually turn into the only
backend that is required.
The vision
2012 will be a transition year for the web browser and we predict
that the browser, as we understand it today, and simply navigate from
cnn.com to nytimes.com, will die. The technology and features that are
enabling a platform-driven browser, including much more sophisticated
home-page applications and interfaces such as the Gamepad API that
connects browsers to any popular input device, or the browser
communication feature WebRTC, will become much more apparent by the end
of the year.
Much of the current momentum appears to be driven by Google and
Chrome, even if a good portion of the features that Google has
implemented in Chrome have their origins at Mozilla, such as the Gamepad
API. Google obviously has a strong interest in growing market share for
Chrome and finding a way to make Chrome OS and Google TV much more
successful – it would be rather surprising and negligent if the company
did not follow such a strategy. The aggressive agenda has forced Mozilla
and Microsoft, particularly in 2010 and 2011, to rethink their browsers
and they may be under greater pressure if Chrome assumes market
leadership, according to StatCounter.
Right now, we are seeing the most competitive browser landscape in
history and such scenarios tend to promote innovation and change.
Wolfgang Gruener in Business Products on January 31
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