Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Nokia 808 PureView: A 41 Megapixel Milestone for Smartphones


Nokia calls it the next breakthrough in photography: A smartphone with a 41 megapixel camera – three times the resolution of current mainstream digital cameras. However, it comes with huge drawbacks that are tough to swallow and create a problem that, without the 808, you simply don’t have. Here is some food for thought why this phone matters, and why it is a technology demonstration that will end up as a commercial flop.

If Kazumi Saburi has read about the announcement of the Nokia 808 today, there is a good chance that he took a moment out of his busy day and reflected on his invention back in 1997. Saburi carries the unofficial title of the inventor of the camera phone. Back in 1997, he was able to convince his managers at Kyocera to lead a project group that created the Visual Phone VP-210, the world’s first camera phone that was released in May of 1999. It’s quite an astonishing story of a humble man who changed our life – I researched and recorded the material in 2005 for T-Mobile and Tom’s Hardware (you can find the text here). The VP-210 was, from today’s perspective, just as humble as its inventor. The image resolution was 220 x 254 pixels – in total 55,880 pixels – and there was enough memory to store 20 pictures in JPEG format on the phone. No flash memory expansions lots, just in case you are wondering. However, also keep in mind that, back then, flash memory cards were sold in 16 or 20 MB capacities and the typical resolution of a DSC was somewhere between 1 and 2 MP that generated pictures with a size of less than a megabyte.
If you used camera phones in the early 2000s, you know what kind of resolution I am talking about – the kind of resolution that isn’t enough to be even called snapshot-worthy. Those first camera phones, which flooded the Asian and European market beginning in 2003, made it difficult to imagine that we would want to look at such a picture on anything else other than a 2-inch cell phone screen. In fact, CMOS sensor chips makers maintained until recently that cameras in cell phones and smartphones are unlikely to ever escape their snapshot status and rival the picture quality of a decent, dedicated DSC. That may have changed today: Nokia has a smartphone with a 41 MP camera, roughly three times the resolution of mainstream DSCs and more than 730 times the resolution of the camera in the VP-210, resulting in 35 MB pictures. Engadget had some time with the device and already concluded that the pictures the 808 can deliver are simply stunning.

A milestone for compact photography
Nokia does not want the 808 to be recognized just because of its ridiculous image sensor. However, it is what is getting the camera headlines and it is what the camera will be remembered for, at least in the near future. While megapixels do not translate to better pictures necessarily, this is the first phone that potentially can take better pictures than your dedicated, average DSC. Also, remember, you can purchase up to 64 GB of microSD memory for less than $200 today and store more than 1800 35 MB pictures taken by the phone in full resolution. Conceivably, this may be the best camera you have ever bought. Keep in mind that regular 40+ MP cameras can cost tens of thousands of dollars today, if you care about resolution alone – which makes the 808 even more fascinating (even if the image qualities do not quite compare).

Innovation or not?
Social networks were, not unexpectedly, abuzz with the 41 MP camera and especially Microsoft employees seem to feel relieved that Nokia can deliver what Apple and others do not. In the end, Windows Phone has not won much in the market yet and Nokia still has to rise from the ashes, even if the Lumia 900 looks promising. For example, one executive told his network that Nokia does not get the credit it deserves and that true innovation solves problems that users don’t know they have.

Of course, that would be a bit short too describe the nature of innovation. Innovation would also have to accomplish a goal of solving a problem without creating new ones, which the 808 actually might do. Where the 808 also appears to fail is a cohesive user experience that Apple provides in such a consistent manner. As much the 808 is a milestone, it is, unfortunately, an unfinished product that won’t live very long, and disappear just as fast as it has surfaced. Here is why.

User Experience
A shocker is the fact that the 808 does not run Windows Phone, an operating system Nokia is betting its future on. And no, it does not run Android either. It runs Symbian Belle. This is one of those cases in which you scratch your head and wonder what they were thinking. A Symbian high-end phone. Really?

This phone is likely to cost at least $500 and more likely $600 when it hits American shores. We know that customers today prefer iOS and Android – and users thoroughly enjoy those apps they can get through app stores. Phones have become social multifunction devices that need to do more than look pretty and have a large (4-inch) screen display and a fast (1.3 GHz) processor. Without a supporting popular platform, a new smartphone is dead on arrival. With Windows Phone 7.5, the 808 would have been Microsoft’s/Nokia’s first true killer phone that has a feature no other phone can touch. If the Lumia 900 made you wonder whether you should consider a Windows Phone, the 808 would have pulled the customers into phone stores and delivered significant sales. With Symbian Belle, the 808 is DOA. A 41 MP is a nice-to-have feature, the app store is generally considered a must-have feature today.

Earlier today, we heard that Android has reached a milestone of 300 million activated devices, with 850,000 new devices joined the installed base every day.

Bandwidth Strapped
At 35 MB a picture, how long would it take you to burn through your bandwidth allowance when you are posting pictures to Facebook? Let’s just forget for a moment that it will also take minutes – not seconds – to upload such a picture as you would want to take advantage of the resolution of the camera: You could send 6 pictures per month on AT&T’s cheapest plan, and 57 pictures on the mainstream 2 GB plan (of course, you can’t do anything else if you send those pictures). If you exploit the 41 MP capability, you will end up with a bandwidth problem with today’s cellular subscription plans (unless you are using Sprint). The choice is to either scale down the resolution for online purposes, which is silly given the fact that you may buy this phone solely because of its resolution, or to get a more generous data plan, which is also silly given the fact that, in 2012, smartphones have become mainstream and you should really be able to send all the pictures you want. Unfortunately, the 808 creates a data volume with a mainstream application that other phones do not create. Sure, you can bust through any bandwidth limit if you follow Verizon’s advice to watch Netflix on a cellular network, but we are talking about simple still images in this case. In order to make the phone attractive to the user, Nokia would have to provide unique high-volume data plans with this phone, which is rather unlikely to happen as carriers happily cash in on data overages. Imagine using this phone abroad and sending a 35 MB picture to your family via AT&T data plan that charges $20 per MB outside the U.S. A single picture will cost you more than what you paid for the phone.

The Bottom Line: Nice
Welcome back, Nokia. The Lumia 900 established credibility, but it is out-of box thinking that will help the company gain traction again. The 808 is hardly the phone that will fly off the shelves, but it is an impressive demonstration of technology. The good news is that we now know what will be possible in phones in the not-too-distant future: Even if this is not the iPhone/Android/Windows Phone that has mass market appeal, we know that someone will get it right one day. With a popular platform behind it, I will be the first in line to buy a phone with such an image sensor.

Wolfgang Gruener in Products on February 27

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Chrome for Android: It’s Not Enough, Google


Chrome for Android was released with about 3 months delay (or more than 3 years, depending on your view) on Tuesday. Google hopes to replicate the runaway success of the desktop version of the browser, but the browser is less appealing and less accessible to the user than Chrome, which makes this mobile browser an inconclusive product that, in addition, lacks compelling features over rivals.

I have to admit that I had high hopes for this browser and felt that I was a let down by Google today. It is not (yet) the innovative Chrome browser that arrived with a revolutionary concept almost 4 years ago and recently surpassed Firefox as the world’s second most popular browser. Chrome for Android will succeed as Google can leverage its platform ownership top push it as a default browser, but it is, by far, not a slam dunk, which is good news for Mozilla and Opera.

Understanding Chrome
The value of Chrome to Google comes down to a very simple element: Advertising. Google’s business model is based on selling more advertising every month. The more ad viewers (users), the better. Chrome essentially locks users into using Google search and related services, which secures Google’s core business. If Chrome is successful, Google is successful. Every improvement in Chrome can be broken down to the purpose of making Chrome work extremely well with Google’s products and making it easy for users of other browsers to switch, while providing services that makes it look silly to switch back to something else: If Chrome is updated so frequently and automatically, why would you use another browser? The formula still works as Chrome will be breaking the 29% (desktop) market share hurdle this month in StatCounter’s charts.

Chrome for Android has the same purpose: Users of Chrome for Android are safe Google Search users and Adsense viewers. The more users browse with Chrome, the better for Google’s revenue base.

Chrome for Android: What Works
The new browser arrives with a pitch that promises greater speed, simplicity and sync. I will get to speed and simplicity below, and focus on sync first. Synchronization of browsing data is the single most important feature of Chrome for Android. You can take all your open bookmarks, saved bookmarks, browsing history and settings from your desktop and seamlessly use them in the same way on your smartphone and tablet. It is a feature we have been waiting for and it’s good to know that the wait is over (for some). Mozilla is still trying to figure out Sync for Firefox Mobile, but is still using a way too complicated process. Mozilla had an advantage for about half a year and an opportunity to fix its synchronization implementation, but it seems that Google is now taking the lead.

Unfortunately, for Google, that is the only good news.

Chrome for Android: What Needs Work
There are several problems with Chrome for Android. Lack of differentiators may be the least of them. Honestly, do we care about speed? Today, available 4G connection represent a much greater impact on browsing speed than JavaScript implementations or the availability of hardware acceleration. Simplicity is also a somewhat questionable benefit as I personally find Firefox’ swiping interface much more useful and its tab display much more user friendly than the implementation in Chrome for Android.

A more significant problem is availability of the browser (app). Chrome for Android only works on Ice Cream Sandwich and is compatible with only about 1% of Android devices out there. Google’s decision may be related to the fact that the developers have chosen to use a native GUI that requires Android 4.0 as supporting structure, but this limitation is clearly a letdown. And there is no hope for this situation to change: Chrome will only run on Android 4 and up. Period. Even if this is just a beta app as of now, the fragmentation of Android is a problem and will sooner or later become a serious pain in the neck for Google if it wants to roll out software that simply does not support potentially four or five older Android OS versions that are still popular.

Also, Chrome for Android will raise, once again, questions why there is a need for Chrome OS and Android. The Chrome browser will become the fabric that ties together Chrome OS cloud computers, desktop and notebook PCs as well as Android phones and tablets. However, these are two different platforms and it may have been a smarter move for Google to either develop Android as a desktop OS for entry level computers or use Chrome as an underlying HTML5 processing platform for its phones. Chrome for Android will somewhat help Chrome OS computers, tablets and smartphones grow together, but there will always be an awkward hurdle between Android and Chrome that simply does not exist with Apple’s iOS and Microsoft Windows platform (Windows Phone 8 will use the Windows 8 core). That problem may be more amplified if we remember how often we really use a browser on a tablet and a smartphone. Market research suggests that web browsing represents only 10% of the app usage time on a smartphone. It may be slightly higher on a tablet, but there is no denying that phones and tablets are app platforms and not suited to run a web browser in a way notebooks and desktop PCs do. In a way, Chrome for Android is just an app that you will use if you have to browse the web.

The bottom line: Room to grow
Sync is a killer feature for mobile browsers and Google is lucky that Mozilla wasted time and has not figured out how to make syncing bookmark data and other user information in a more convenient way. This feature alone will help the browser to become the standard browser on Android devices. However, the rollout will take quite a while as only Android 4 and up is supported. Mozilla and Opera still have an opportunity to play ball and compete.

Wolfgang Gruener in Products on February 08

Monday, February 6, 2012

AMD Consumerizes: Tablet SoCs Ahead


In its first public presentation, AMD’s new leadership explained a new direction of the company to align itself with an evolving CPU and GPU market. In 2013, AMD will be releasing its first SoCs for desktop and tablet computers. Execution will be key for the company to succeed in a highly competitive market that is dominated by ARM vendors and challenged by Intel.

Rory Read, AMD’s new chief executive officer, did not waste any time changing AMD’s roadmap and realign the company in quickly shifting marketing environment for processor manufacturers. Its former GPU rival, Nvidia is more and more emerging as a leading ARM processor supplier for tablets, future subnotebooks and smartphones, Qualcomm and Freescale are additional vendors that are pushing into the computing market from the low-end and Intel is preparing its first serious attack to defend its core business and extend its traditional markets into the tablet and smartphone area in China in Q2 and in more areas of the world possibly sometime in H2 of this year.


Read and his new executives, many of them with a history at IBM, crafted the AMD’s new strategy with the bet that hardware will be consumerized, converged and heavily rely on cloud services. Consumerization, by the way, is a rather way to describe technologies that are first established in consumer markets and then extended to other areas, including enterprise segments. AMD’s client roadmap lists plenty of new products with enough code-names to confuse analysts and satisfy the thirst of enthusiasts. However, there are two products in particular that are interesting – products that AMD will have to keep pushing until their release.

For 2012, the company announced Hondo, a new Z-series APU that will integrate one or two Bobcat CPUs and a basic GPU. It is listed in the tablet and fanless category with a power consumption of 4.5 watts. This product feels a bit like Intel’s Oak Trail (Atom Z670), which failed to gain ground in the tablet game as it was a somewhat half-baked product that did not entirely play by the rules of the tablet requirements game. There is no information about Hondo, and we remain cautious about its potential impact, especially if it becomes available as a choice next to Intel’s potentially more attractive Medfield Atom Z2460 SoC.

Much more interesting is the 28 nm Tamesh, which will be, next to Kabini, AMD’s first SoC. While Hondo will use the aging Bobcat CPU core, Tamesh gets two new Jaguar cores as well as a new graphics engine. Kabini will get up to four cores, but will be reserved for desktop systems. No information has been provided about Jaguar yet, but AMD confirmed that it will be used in ultra-low power APUs.

So far, it appears as if AMD will be competing in the tablet space with x86 processors, which is a brave move as ARM owns the market at this time and is the de-facto core used by Android products, which has been accepted by the industry, including Intel, as the platform with the most promising future next to Apple’s iOS. When available, Tamesh will be a first-generation product that will have to prove its capabilities next to Intel’s ambitious SoCs as well as next to Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung and Freescale. It is too early to predict who will win this fight, but we know that x86 is the underdog today and that AMD will find itself in a battle against strong rivals that will not take prisoners.

Combining an ARM core with its GPU technology may have been not as risky as taking the x86 route, , but this is the area of its core expertise and may pay off in the end.

Wolfgang Gruener in Business Products

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

2012: The Year The Old Browser Died


January 2012 has been a remarkable month for the web browser as we know it. Those who closely follow the popularity of web browsers already know that Chrome has, according to StatCounter, surpassed Firefox in market share in November 2011, thus rearranging the rules of the browser game and turning it, for now, into a two-horse race. Now, Chrome is beginning to approach IE in most regions around the globe and has reduced its distance to IE, on one day, to less than four percentage points. If the current trend, which has lasted for more than 3 years, continues, then Google will surpass IE within 3 months.

We will get new browser market share numbers tonight, but since StatCounter is nice enough to provide daily market share numbers, it is not too difficult to figure what the result will be, less than 10 hours before the official publication. There is a truly historic trend in those numbers and their impact is largely unrecognized today. The conclusion can only be that the browser has grown up from being an application to a platform that will dominate more and more the way we will be using products and services in the future. A vision in which an Internet Explorer could, conceivably, replace much of Windows is not science-fiction anymore, but could soon turn into a scenario of necessity.


History
There are different ways how to break up the evolution of the browser. I prefer the following approach: Invented in 1992, we saw commercial organizations as well as a substantial number of consumers see interest in the (Spyglass) browser, at the time merely an add-on to online services such as Compuserve, in 1993. Beginning in 1995, Microsoft showed his interest in developing IE and started pushing the software into businesses with customization toolkits and an ability to run IE3 with a simple executable – without the need of installation.

While Microsoft trailed Netscape in browser market share, the game changed in 1997 with IE4, when Microsoft almost arrogantly deviated from the HTML standard path and integrated IE4 deeply into Windows and enabled the browser to run “dynamic” desktop applications. This integration wiped out market share for Netscape, which was acquired (and strangled) by AOL in 1998. Until 2004, innovation for the browser largely stood still, but Microsoft was able to establish IE5 and 6 as browser standards around the world. In 2004, Mozilla launched Firefox, which was developed with some assets of Netscape, and reintroduced competition for IE. Until 2008, Firefox gained about 20% market share and became especially popular with consumers, which led me to describe the browser frequently as a “weekend browser” with market share jumping especially on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays.

Chrome launched in late 2008, stirred discussions, but failed to attract market share until Q2 2009. In 2009, Chrome gained 4.5 points market share, in 2010 8.8 points and in 2011 11.6 points, according to StatCounter, while both IE and Firefox are suffering losses. Chrome’s initial success was mostly based on its promise of greater speed and later a reduced browsing interface, both features that were adopted by IE and Firefox in 2010 and 2011. Combined with its advertising leverage, Chrome has the momentum to keep gaining market share at a consistent pace until it reaches market leadership.

The present
January has been, as mentioned above, a remarkable month for Chrome. Its average market share will come in at about 28.4%, up from 27.3% in December. Firefox will fall about half a point to below 24.8%, its lowest level in 43 months, and IE will drop to about 37.5%, down from 38.7% in December. Over the past 12 months, IE lost 8.0 points market share and Firefox 5.6 lost points. Chrome has gained 11.8 points, a new record for Google. The difference of nearly 2 points went to Apple’s Safari, which is now at about 6.5%.

However, the interesting part of those numbers is in the details. Chrome for example, peaked last Sunday at 30.9%, according to StatCounter, the first time it exceeded 30% market share. By the way, one year ago, Firefox fell permanently below the 30% mark. IE dropped to 34.0% market share on Sunday. On a browser version level, Chrome 16 held more than 27.6% of the market, followed by IE8 with 18.5%, Firefox 9 with 15.8% and IE9 with 12.4%. If we consider the fact that Microsoft would like to get rid of IE8 immediately, then Chrome now has more than twice the (HTML5) market share than Microsoft does in the general HTML5 browser market. If we add the fact that Mozilla is closely following Chrome in browser features (including SPDY and the rejection of Microsoft’s H.264 video approach), Chrome and Firefox now own more than 43% of the HTML5 browser market with their most current browser versions, which gives especially Google unprecedented power to push and reject browser features for the mass market.

The immediate future
IE, Firefox and Chrome have been on very consistent curves of market share decline and growth for more than 3 years. If that trend continues, and there is no reason to believe that there will be substantial change even with the launch of Windows 8 and IE10, Chrome will begin to surpass IE market share on individual days within 60 to 75 days. By June or July, Chrome will permanently surpass IE market share, if we remain with StatCounter’s numbers. The meeting point of both curves will be at about 34% market share. Given Microsoft’s historic dominance of this market and the fact that there are now more Internet users who have no idea that Netscape ever existed than those who do, it will be an important sign for the web (if and) when Chrome passes IE in market share and ends an era that has lasted for more than 14 years – an eternity in tech.

So, what does that mean for the user?
Chrome’s gain is, of course, a result of a choice that is being made by the average user. Google is building user loyalty – in part the company is even forcing that loyalty by catering to our laziness to keep our browser updated and is sending those updates to us, silently and, let’s admit it, conveniently. That trend has some obvious implications, for example that Google is following a strategy to make sure that we are using Google Search as a search engine and not Bing, and secure Google’s core revenue base. Consider Chrome a wall that is being built around Google Search. However, there are more implications that are likely going to change the nature of the web browser.

We have been preaching here that the browser is not just a piece of software anymore. It’s the fabric that holds an entire platform together. Conceivably, the browser is evolving and has matured to become much more than a tool that enables the user to enter a URL and view the data stored and visualized at that destination. For Google, Chrome is just happening to visualize websites, but its JavaScript optimizations were intended from the very start to enable rich web applications and services to replace your local software. SPDY and revisions and protocols of TCP are further examples how Google is slowly lifting the browser’s capabilities to run what we may soon perceive as being an alternative to Windows. Then there is Chrome OS, which will be handicapped as long as there is no reliable and affordable always-on wireless Internet connection everywhere, but the vision is certainly there. Then there is Chrome for Android, which will play a much greater role on large-screen devices such as Google TV than it does on smartphones and tablets, which are primarily app-centric devices. For Mozilla, the browser is taking a similar turn with Boot2Gecko, the organization’s approach to provide a Firefox-like OS for phones and tablets, as well as Mozilla’s idea to open up web applications for Firefox. Microsoft is, similar to Windows 98, integrating a much more web-centric approach to Windows 8, with an App Store that will be heavily promoting HTML5 apps to run in IE10. IE is also turning into a platform tool for Microsoft with the essential software and backend that could tie phones, tablets, PCs and consumer electronics devices together. For certain devices, IE could actually turn into the only backend that is required.

The vision
2012 will be a transition year for the web browser and we predict that the browser, as we understand it today, and simply navigate from cnn.com to nytimes.com, will die. The technology and features that are enabling a platform-driven browser, including much more sophisticated home-page applications and interfaces such as the Gamepad API that connects browsers to any popular input device, or the browser communication feature WebRTC, will become much more apparent by the end of the year.

Much of the current momentum appears to be driven by Google and Chrome, even if a good portion of the features that Google has implemented in Chrome have their origins at Mozilla, such as the Gamepad API. Google obviously has a strong interest in growing market share for Chrome and finding a way to make Chrome OS and Google TV much more successful – it would be rather surprising and negligent if the company did not follow such a strategy. The aggressive agenda has forced Mozilla and Microsoft, particularly in 2010 and 2011, to rethink their browsers and they may be under greater pressure if Chrome assumes market leadership, according to StatCounter.

Right now, we are seeing the most competitive browser landscape in history and such scenarios tend to promote innovation and change.

Wolfgang Gruener in Business Products on January 31