Mozilla Asks Firefox 3.6 Users To Upgrade to 8.0, If They Want

Firefox 3.6 is turning out to be a major pain in the neck for Mozilla, as 3.6 users are much more stubborn than anticipated.

Firefox 8 is officially released today and will be making its way to version 7.0 users sometime this week. This release will also include another attempt to ask Firefox 3.6 users to update to the new version, “if they are so inclined.” Firefox 3.6.24 is released today, but will be the target of an 8.0 “advertised update” on November 17. It is not a mandatory update and 3.6 has not reached its end of life yet, but Mozilla is certainly carefully urging users to migrate, now. Keep in mind that this is a stark contrast to Google’s approach, which simply migrates users by default without asking.

The transition is critical for Mozilla as Firefox 3.6 users are stuck in an aging platform, possibly just like IE6 users. According to StatCounter Firefox 3.6 market share is about 5.8% these days, compared to about 14.4% of Firefox 7. Firefox 6, in comparison, is already down to 1.4%. Moving users off of 3.6 will be critical for Mozilla for its future success opportunity, as Chrome has almost caught up with Firefox. For this month, StatCounter estimates Firefox market share at 25.6%, while Chrome is at 25.4% so far. On weekends, Chrome is now exceeding 26.5% and Firefox has fallen to 25.2%.

Firefox’ market share decline is likely to continue at least until Firefox version 10, which is due on January 31, 2012. Current market share data indicates that Chrome will be exceeding Firefox market share for the first time this month. Based on the limited roadmaps we are aware of today, we believe that Firefox market share could continue to drop until the middle of next year and stabilize if Mozilla’s Boot-to-Gecko platform will be delivered on schedule. By the middle of next year, Firefox could bottom out at about 22% market share, while Chrome will have climbed well above 31% and may intercept IE at around 34% in H2 2012. These numbers assume that the current trend of market share gains and losses is holding up for at least 6 months.

There has been no further information on Mozilla’s 3.6 EOL plans and no additional data on the company’s planned ESR versions of Firefox for businesses,

Wolfgang Gruener in Business Products on November 08