“Stumpy” Could Be First To Get Google’s HW Accelerated Chrome OS UI

Chrome developer François Beaufort has posted a screenshot that apparently has been taken on Samsung’s upcoming Chrome OS desktop PC. The big news here is that the hardware-accelerated Aura UI that promises a much richer interface for the user while leveraging the horsepower of a graphics chip will be part of Stumpy. The Chromebox will also integrate more hardware horsepower with an Intel Sandy Bridge processor.

By now we know that the first two Chrome OS computers, offered by Samsung and Acer in a netbook form factor, pretty much flopped, while Google decided to shoot down a much more promising device on trademark violation claims. As Chrome is a cornerstone of Google’s product strategy, it is unlikely that Chrome OS PCs will simply fade and CES revealed that some new devices are on the way, even if the enthusiasm for Chrome OS is much more subdued than it was a year ago.

The one device we believe is waiting for is Samsung’s Stumpy, which is the code name for a desktop Chrome computer (that will be offered next to “Lumpy”, possibly a new Chrome OS netbook). Courtesy of François Beaufort, we learned that Stumpy will be much more powerful than the underpowered and overpriced first-generation products. The test platform of Stumpy uses Intel’s Core i5-2520M processor, which was part of the original Sandy Bridge launch in Q1 2011 and may be replaced with a more up-to-date processor in the production version. The dual-core 2520M runs at 2.5 GHz/3.2 GHz at a thermal design power of 35 watts.

Compared to the 1.6 GHz Atom in the first Chrome OS netbooks, there is substantially more horsepower on tap, there is an opportunity for powerful graphics cards (Intel HD Graphics 3000 at 650 MHz/1.3 GHz are integrated by default) and up to 16 GB of supported DDR3 memory suggest that this will be a much more capable cloud computing device. On the downside, the 2520M lists for a tray price of $225 and if Samsung can’t get a good deal from Intel, we should expect Stumpy to retail for more than $500 because of the processor alone.

The Stumpy surprise is the subtle hint that it is already running the Chrome Aura interface, which departs from the current legacy Chrome interface and features a new UI that leverages GPU acceleration capabilities of a computer. Along with the changes under the hood, we expect a few visual updates that moves the Chrome UI much closer to the capability of a local OS such as Windows. There was no information when Stumpy could be released, but it appears as if this is a much better planned product and not the rapid shot the initial Chrome OS devices were. If Google can contain the price of these new boxes, they should be much more appealing than their predecessors.

Wolfgang Gruener in Products on January 17

Intel’s 1.6 GHz Smartphone SoC: Enough To Beat Snapdragon?

Intel unveiled at CES its much anticipated entry in the smartphone battle. Previously code-named Medfield, the Atom Z2460 lacks a snappy name, but it arrives with promising features. Intel has struck a partnership with Motorola as well as Lenovo to get the chip into a commercial devices as early as Q2, but only in China initially. There was also Clover Trail, Intel’s SoC for tablets and hybrids.

It has taken some time until Intel was ready to show off a production-ready Medfield and the result may not be entirely convincing at first sight. The Z2460 uses just a single-core CPU, albeit with hyperthreading support and a virtual second core, and there seem to be some limitations that may raise, at least in some places, eyebrows – such as the 1 GB LPDDR2 (400 MHz) memory limit.

For an entirely new product that is supposed to blow the competition out of the water, this appears to be somewhat underwhelming on the spec side. Also, at first sight, the integrated graphics engine, a 400 MHz version of Intel’s GMA with 240 megapixels per second throughput seems to be below the spec of the upcoming Adreno GPU unit in Qualcomm’s Snapdragon S4 SoC. The system is, of course powerful enough to run 1080p/30fps video for output, but only at 1280×1024 on the local display. Additionally, this is a 32 nm part, while Intel’s rivals are already moving toward 28 nm. It’s not going to kill Intel, and it won’t decide the smartphone race, but the manufacturing process is one of Intel’s key strengths and it will be important for the company to move its Atom SoCs to 22 nm for simple marketing reasons.

Intel has a beautiful spec phone as a Z2460 reference platform at its booth and the performance of the device appears to be doing well as far as the responsiveness of the display and app load times are concerned. At the very least, the phone appears to be very competitive with everything else that is one the market, but we have to wait and see how it performs in the real world. Intel engineers are confident that the Z2460 will deliver. Usually, their performance estimates are on the conservative side, so we are optimistic that the hardware will be, at the very least, on par with high-end ARM SoCs when the Z2460 is released.

The reference device has a 4.03-inch screen, a 1.3MP and an 8MP camera, 14 days of standby power and 45 hours of audio playback. The best argument for the Z2460 is Intel’s claim that the engine has been fine-tuned to work well with the Android software core and excel in Javascript and HTML5 code execution – in speed as well as battery efficiency disciplines.

Pretty hardware alone won’t allow Intel to push the chip into the market. So it is not surprising that Intel is partnering with Lenovo and took the shortcut to Motorola via Google, which some claim annoyed Microsoft, but could have simply been a small payback for Microsoft’s decision to stab Intel in the back by partnering with ARM and inviting more chip companies to equip compact Windows 8 notebooks. Intel isn’t exactly happy that there will be Nvidia-, Qualcomm- and Samsung-based Windows 8 notebooks and the move to work with Google on smartphones all the way is a conclusive move. To respond to the ARM threat in the tablet and low-end computing market, Intel showed off Clover Trail, a 32 nm SoC Intel will pitch for tablets as well as hybrid notebooks (Windows/Android), which will be its offering to compete with ARM in the compact computing space.

The Atom Z2460 will launch in a smartphone in China in Q2. Motorola confirmed that it will be shipping an Intel-based smartphone in the second half of this year.

Wolfgang Gruener in Products on January 10

The Dark Horse Among Tablets In 2012

We are seeing plenty of new tablets emerge at the CES 2012, which opened earlier today with a record number of more than 3100 exhibitors that have prepared more than 25,000 product announcements that are available to about 150,000 visitors over the next few days. Among those tablets is a particularly noteworthy device that could have a huge impact on the tablet market, if it works as promised.

I am not talking about OLPC’s XO3, which is equally important for the developing world. My attention is wrapped up in the Wikipad that sparks the kind of innovative risk we so desperately need in the Android tablet segment. It’s a nicely designed 8-inch device that has three special touches. First, it can be purchased with an attachable game controller unit that creates a product that could be considered a Super WiiU and could turn into a problem for Nintendo, at least if the app growth for Android continues and more and more casual and high-end games will make their way onto the platform. Second, the manufacturer claims that the Wikipad as a 1080p screen, which would be rather stunning, if it was able to squeeze 1920×1080 pixels into 8 inches of display size. The icing on the cake is a naked-eye 3D touch screen that visualizes the Android 4.0 OS surface.

There aren’t any other details besides the fact that there is only 8 GB of flash storage (expandable via micro SD), HDMI and USB 2.0 as well as 1080p video playback. The simple screen data alone suggests that this device will need a powerful processor, even if we know that lower-end single-core 1080p SoCs can cope with 1080p, but we would think that at least a dual- and, better, a quad-core unit will be necessary to run 3D.

There is no information on price, but we don’t think that this is your typical $199 tablet that will compete with the Kindle Fire. The manufacturer notes that the Wikipad will be powerful enough to run the “latest high-end video games through new cloud gaming services,” which indicates that we are looking at a much more expensive product here. However, if the device can be offered for less than $500 including the game controller as well as a full Android experiences with unlimited access to Android Market while maintaining acceptable battery life, this could turn into a stunning product. We haven’t seen the device in action, but if it delivers the goods, this may be the dark horse to keep an eye on this year.

So far, it is one of the very few tablets that could match or even be ahead of Apple’s iPad 3, which is also believed to integrate a Retina display with a resolution of 2048×1536 pixels that creates a 3D surface effect via multiple display layers.

Kurt Bakke in Products on January 10

HP Spectre: A Better Dell Adamo

Earlier today, HP launched the HP Envy 14 Spectre and I was immediately reminded of the 2009 Dell Adamo, which was Dell’s halo product that year. Both are wrapped in glass, both look stunning in black and both would cause you to drool. But the Adamo was a bit ahead of its time, Intel hadn’t yet figured out how to package performance, we weren’t yet divorced from our optical drives (streaming was in its infancy), and Adamo had some nasty tradeoffs, not the least of which was a very high price.

With the Spectre, HP has launched a product with a similar look to the Adamo, but far fewer tradeoffs, some stronger wow factors and a much more attractive price. Viva Ultrabooks!

Adamo Memories

The thing about the glass version of the Adamo was that it would take your breath away. It really was that good looking – the combination of the Gorilla glass on the cover and edgeless display on the inside was true art and it remains one of the most beautiful laptops ever built. Few of them were sold, however, because at a $2000 starting price, the product represented too many tradeoffs for must users. It wasn’t helped by the fact this was launched during the Windows Vista issues and thermal problems back then meant you could only put a 1.4 GHz dual-core processor in it. It was one of the first products to ship with a 128 GB SSD, but those early large capacity SSDs were famous for issues and for being incredibly expensive.

One of the unique parts of this product was that it was heavy for its class coming in nearly a pound heavier than the MacBook Air, its closest competitor from Apple. Battery life was advertised at over 5 hours but you typically got close to 4 and it came packaged in a wonderful clear plastic box which was a bit of a problem and not, to my knowledge, repeated.

I was actually afraid to carry mine, not because it was fragile, but because I was convinced someone would take it from me.

HP Envy Spectre

There are a lot of similarities from an almost identical weight at 4 pounds to the heavy use of glass outside and inside the product. However, in features, the HP showcases that a lot has happened in the last three years. The operating system is Windows 7, which is both more reliable and faster than Windows Vista was. Streaming is common so we don’t miss the lack of an optical drive as much.   Intel has improved dramatically their mobile processors and this product is both faster and has over twice the battery life of the old Adamo. Price is around $600 less and while, like the Adamo, the Spectre has a lighted keyboard, the Spectre’s is proximity sensitive to it lights up in a wave as you approach the laptop.  This is probably one of the coolest looking features outside of the Alienware customizable lights on their laptops.

This piece of art has enough performance that HP actually packages Photoshop and Premier Elements on it which would typically require too much performance for a product in this class. Intel has been doing some impressive work here.

Carrying Art

Our technology increasingly defines us and both these products were and are designed to make as much a statement as they are to be a tool.   Both are stunning to look at and while the Dell anticipated coming trends the HP has taken advantage of those trends to build a far better product.   In the end, I applaud both companies, Dell for plowing the field, and HP continuing on with the idea.  I think there is room for beauty in laptops and both the old Adamo and new Spectre are stunningly beautiful products.

Rob Enderle in Business Products on January 09

Are Ultrabooks Just Keeping Up With Apple?

Intel has created and “speced” a new form factor for notebooks it is calling ultrabooks. Many have speculated that this is a direct response to the popularity of the MacBook Air. But if this effort is only focused on that narrow vision, it will fail. Ultrabooks represent a much bigger strategic vision (and investment) that could revolutionize the notebook market, if Intel is successful.

The general PC market, and especially the notebook market, has grown somewhat stale over the past few years. Indeed, most innovation in computing has been directed at the myriad of mobile devices. Some pundits are speculating that we have moved beyond the PC era and users are switching to smart phones and tablets as primary computing platforms.

We do not share this view, and believe the PC has real benefit for many use cases and will remain a predominant platform for many business and consumer users. But Intel and its ecosystem (e.g., Microsoft, notebook vendors, app vendors, user interface specialists) must stimulate and regenerate notebook interest based on the latest trends in thin, light, responsive and great user experience that users have grown accustomed to using tablets and smart phones. Intel plans to do so with its new ultrabooks, a term it owns and will only allow to be used by vendors that meet Intel-defined minimum specs, and only by Intel-powered machines (AMD/ARM powered devices won’t be able to use the ultrabook branding).

Can Intel and its ecosystem revitalize the notebook market and stimulate consumer demand (and a new buying cycle)? If ultrabooks are only thin light MacBook Air knockoffs, they won’t be very successful. They need to be more. Certainly thin and light are important. And price is always an issue – the first generation of devices now coming to market are typically premium priced at $700-$900+, and not very attractive to many consumers when compared to $300-$500 mainstream notebooks. But we believe ultrabooks will undergo some significant changes in successive generations of product over the next 1-2 years. First, with next gen Core chips from Intel (IvyBridge due later this year), ultrabooks should be able to achieve 8-10 hours of battery life even in a reduced form factor necessitating a smaller battery. They will also be optimized for instant on (less than 10 seconds from sleep mode) which will solve one of the biggest complaints of PC users and make ultrabooks much more like mobile devices. Ultrabooks will include enhanced security capabilities for protection from malware attacks, safer document/media control and web surfing. And they will include improved media creation and consumption capability to enhance the end user experience. Finally, touch interfaces and touch enhanced form factors will emerge that will allow users to interact with devices in a more natural way.

Of course, much of this functionality is dependent on the next generation of OS powering these systems. Microsoft has not yet fully specified Windows 8 availability and the functions it will allow. But we expect a version of Windows 8 that is optimized for this new form factor to be included in the general release of Windows 8 later this year, combining features of the Metro UI, enhanced boot and recover from standby capability, and specialized functions and drivers for the new ultrabooks. And success will also be dependent on the ultrabook OEMs creating differentiated product “fine tuned” for specific consumer classes (e.g., business users, portable gamers, media creating and consumption, social media centric, artists, etc.).

A number of first generation ultrabooks are being announced at CES. But we expect the “real” ultrabooks will emerge later this year with the new chips, new OS and new user functionality and performance. That is when the true value of the ultrabook devices will be judged. And we expect a number of lower end ultrabooks to come to market at $400-$500 (or less) by the end of 2012, making them more competitive with the mainstream notebook “bricks”. We further expect to see a variety of uniquely derived form factors (some with tablet-like flip over, extended screens, connectivity (media) options, etc.). It is at this point that the ultrabooks will move away from just being seen as a MacBook Air knock-off.

Jack Gold in Business Products on January 06

Google Tweaks Chrome’s Interface, Adds Prediction Details

Google is reworking the Options menu of its Chrome browser. The most recent nightly builds include an experimental menu that eliminates the “Basics”, “Personal Stuff” and “Under the Hood” clutter at the top level. There is also a new feature that visualizes the suggestions provided by the Omnibox.

Google is busy reworking the Options menu of its browser and remove complexity from the user interface. A still hidden Options menu now combines all preferences in one menu and combines the options previously separated in “Basics”, “Personal Stuff” and “Under the Hood” into just one “Options” menu. The menu also shows a revised management console for Chrome extensions.

It’s probably a matter of taste for most users which interface is easier to use, but the big deal is that the more in-depth features that control privacy, and proxy settings and manage security certificates are now out of direct view. The new options menu can be accessed via chrome://chrome.

Those users who enjoy a look behind the scenes of the browser’s features, should check out a new internal URL that has been added recently: chrome://network-action-predictor/. Google now provides details about the Omnibox suggestions by the browser. The Network Action Predictor evaluates the ratio of “hits” and “misses’ when a result was promised and calculates a level of confidence, which determines whether a suggestion will be displayed or not.

Wolfgang Gruener in Products on January 06

Mozilla Preps First Extended Support Version Of Firefox

Four months after publishing the proposal for an extended service release (ESR) for Firefox, Mozilla will be releasing the first Firefox version that responds to business concerns that the rapid release cycle has made Firefox difficult to maintain in corporate. Firefox 10.0 ESR will enable companies to move from Firefox 3.6 to 10.

Firefox 10.0 ESR is scheduled to be released together with the regular Firefox 10 on January 31. Mozilla will support its ESR versions for nine release cycles of 54 weeks. Two release cycles or 12 weeks are reserved as qualification period.

If everything goes according to plan, Mozilla will update its Firefox 10.0.x ESR in six-week rapid release cycles beginning with version 10.0.1 and phase it out with version 10.0.8 on February 12, 2013. However, the updates will be limited to high-risk security patches as well as off-schedule releases that address live security vulnerabilities during that timeframe. Mozilla will not apply stability fixes or new features during the 54-week lifecycle of a ESR generation. The next big transition following 10 ESR, Firefox 17.0 ESR, will be launched simultaneously with Firefox 17 and Firefox 10.0.7 ESR on November 20, 2012.

The first two ESR 17 releases, ESR 17.0 and ESR 17.0.1, serve as qualification version to give companies time to update and prepare their IT environments. The hard transition date will be from ESR 10.0.8 to ESR 17.0.2 on February 12, 2013.

Firefox ESR releases are the result of criticism that Mozilla would not care about businesses as Firefox users. Following Mozilla’s statement that it would reconsider its approach to keep businesses on board, the developer announced in September of last year its ESR idea. Since then, Mozilla has increased the maintenance cycle for an ESR release from 42 to 54 weeks, based on feedback from its users.

The advantage of the ESR release for business is that the update path is far easier to handle for large corporate environments and gives companies time to adjust their internal structure for a new browser, qualify it and update user manuals. However, the transition path for users will keep much more dramatic updates (from version 10 to 17, for example) and eliminates the software rapid release updates, which is one of the biggest advantages of short term updates. Another downside is the fact that the ESR releases will trail the adoption of HTML5 standards and features that will take advantage of enabling and managing web applications. In the long term, business environments that are focused on year-long support cycles will have to find ways to speed up their qualification process.

While Mozilla clearly stumbled initially with its rapid release cycle and has not ironed out all issues yet, the release of Firefox ESR is a sign that Mozilla is listening to its users and fixes problems relatively quickly. It is one of those characteristics that makes Mozilla unique and one of the features Mozilla will need to stay relevant.

Wolfgang Gruener in on January 05

Technorati Verfication Check

2S78QND7SGM5

Chrome Concludes 2011 With Record Growth, IE Dips Below 40%

Chrome ended 2011 with 42.50% market share gain for the year and the highest monthly market share growth in its history, according to data released by StatCounter. Microsoft’s Internet Explorer was the only browser to lose market share, but slightly slowed its losses over 2010. Firefox had a tough year with a loss that more than quadrupled over 2010.

Data: StatCounter versus Net Applications

Both analytics firms typically show the same trend in their charts, but publish substantially different market share estimates. Due to the greater data set and more substantial background how the data is collected, we use StatCounter’s data for our analysis. Please keep in mind that there are numerous browsers stats collection services, all of which publish different numbers. Take the exact numbers with a grain of salt, but the general trend is usually similar or the same across all those services.

Both StatCounter and Net Applications still list IE as the leading browser, with 38.65% and 51.87% share, respectively. In both cases, IE share declined substantially over November. Chrome now stands at 27.27% at StatCounter and at 19.11% at Net Applications, Both numbers reflect considerable gains. Firefox dropped to 21.83% in Net Applications’ charts, but was about flat in StatCounter’s estimate with 25.27%. Both Safari and Opera remain insignificant in the greater picture of the browser landscape and their impact on market penetration.

1. IE

IE market share fell from 40.63% to 38.65%, which was the first drop below 40% in more than 13 years for the browser as far as we are aware and the sharpest loss in absolute points in 24 months – and highest loss for IE on a percentage basis in the history of the browser, based on StatCounter data. Contributing to the stronger than average loss was the ending of an advertising campaign that pushed IE higher in November as well as a holiday season that generally favors Firefox and Chrome as the more popular browsers for home users. For the entire year, IE lost 7.35 points, which is an improvement over the 8.31 point loss for 2010. While Microsoft is far from halting IE’s decline, it appears as if the company may have gone through a valley and may be able to have an opportunity contain the drop in market share this year.

According to Net Applications, IE9 has a little over 25% market share on Windows 7 PCs worldwide and surpassed IE8 share on Windows 7 with almost 35% in December. However, IE9 does not play a leading role across all operating systems and has only 11.48% market share in Net Applications’ charts and 12.09% in StatCounter’s version. For Microsoft, however, adoption of IE9 in Windows 7 is critical globally and will enable the company to build a much stronger position with its browser when Windows 8 is released and a silent update process is rolled out for the browser in the coming months. For HTML5 developers, Chrome is the more significant browser at this time, as it trumps IE9 market share in both NetApplications’ and StatCounter’s charts, if all operating systems are considered.

2. Chrome

Chrome and Firefox user bases remind me somewhat of the rivalry between AMD and Intel or Nvidia and ATI a few years ago. There is quite a bit of dynamic going on and there is little doubt that the enthusiasm for these browsers drives the development in a similar way as it drove the passion for processors and graphics cards. With Chrome approaching Firefox share in NetApplications’ data and now being 2 points ahead of Firefox in StatCounter’s estimate, we are now clearly in the two-horse race we predicted one year ago. Chrome carries the mindshare, is supported by powerful advertising on the web and on the TV, and features a rock solid development process that delivers new browser versions like Toyota is cranking out new Corollas. It’s a perfect machine that can, conceivably, only fail if Google screws up. Chrome gained 11.59 points of market share in 2011, which is more than the 8.81 points it gained in 2010 and more the 4.07 points it gained in 2009, according to StatCounter. At this time, the market share gains are still accelerating, as Chrome gained 6.62 points in the second half of 2011 alone. That increase is likely to continue as Chrome is now trending toward 28% share in StatCounter’s charts.

3. Firefox

Firefox had a difficult year that began with a delayed rollout of Firefox 4, the introduction of a rapid release cycle that is not yet working as Mozilla imagined it and Google and Microsoft are playing a much rougher game that has caught Firefox in the center of the firing line. At 25.27% share, Firefox lost 5.41 points or 21.4% of its market share over the past 12 months. The released data indicates that all of that share went to Google’s Chrome, which is, at this time, a one-way street, as Firefox does not offer a simple way to import bookmarks and browsing data from Chrome. Firefox lost market share in 10 out of 12 months, but showed stabilization of market share in December. We don’t know if that was a blip, as Firefox dropped to as low as 24% over the past few days in StatCounter’s charts.

2012 Forecast

The browser landscape can change quickly, but we also know that substantially changes in the market trend are unlikely to incur immediately. Trends evolve and either worsen or improve for a particular developer over a period of 6 to 8 months. Based on the historic data as well as product roadmaps we currently have available we believe that browser presences will continue the 2011 trend.

1. IE will continue to drop and fall below Chrome in August or September 2012 in StatCounter’s charts. IE’s losses will soften an stabilize when the silent update process is rolled out and Windows 8 is introduced and achieves at least moderate success. If Windows 8 fails, IE is likely to enter another phase of decline and could fall near 30% market share by the end of 2012.

2. Chrome will continue to climb and meet IE at about 34% share. Chrome’s success will increasingly rely on advertising as well as a success of Chrome OS. If Windows 8 has a successful launch and Microsoft is able to market IE9 and IE10 along with it, Chrome could hit a limit for market share growth at about 36%. This estimate is based on a continued trend of 2011.

3. Firefox is the interesting variable in this game that could either impact Chrome or IE growth. In a best case scenario, Mozilla will be able to leverage its newfound wealth from Google, hire developers and streamline its rapid release process and avoid further feature delays and roll out Boot2Gecko on time. If that is the case, we believe that Mozilla has a good case to slow down the decline, stabilize at about 22 – 23%market share and grow from there. In a worst case, the delays will continue and accelerate as Microsoft and Google are going after more market share and Mozilla could find itself below 20% share by the end of this year.

Wolfgang Gruener in Business Products on January 01